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AMID a painful energy crisis that could spell an expensive winter, Europe is bracing for a resurgence of Covid-19 infections.
According to the latest development, several countries are facing record-high cases. Germany’s new Covid-19 cases surged to over 65,000 with health officials warning that the true number of cases could be more than that by two or three times.
The Netherlands reported more than 20,000 cases on Wednesday, hitting new highs for three consecutive days. Meanwhile, France’s new cases breached 20,000 on the same day, its highest since Aug 25.
Both the Netherlands and Austria have introduced partial lockdowns while other countries are still mulling over the reinstatement of social distancing and lockdowns, which will weigh on economic activities heavily.
For now, they are opting for alternatives such as Covid-19 rules or Covid-19 passports while the local authorities are doubling down on unvaccinated people.
Germany is known for its effectiveness in handling the Covid-19 outbreak but a sharp increase in cases among unvaccinated people has raised an alarm.
Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly called for urgent meetings to discuss the country’s response to the crisis.
Prospects remain strong
Despite the threat of Covid-19, we maintain our positive view on the eurozone. After more than a year and a half, global economies are steadily retracing its path to pre-pandemic times.
The latest data releases seemed to support our view that global economies are on track to recovery.
During the third quarter of 2021, the eurozone recorded 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) economic growth after chalking up 14.3% y-o-y in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, it rose by 2.2%.
The eurozone economy not only continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, it is showing resilience, bolstered by the eventual rise in vaccinations and mobility in its economic activities.
Also, the economic recovery path is paved by strong accommodative macroeconomic policies that preserve employment and protect private sector balance sheet. Austria (3.3% y-o-y), France (3%) and Portugal (2.9%) logged the biggest growth among the 19 member countries while the German gross domestic product grew 1.8% and Italy advanced by 2.6%.
The eurozone economy is expected to expand 5% this year, according to recent forecasts from the European Commission, higher than our in-house forecast of 4.8%.
Yet, high energy prices, rising inflation, persistent supply constraints, an eventual increase in coronavirus cases and potential virus mutations are among other factors that can weigh on the recovery. A sudden reversal of accommodative monetary policy can disrupt the recovery as well. The pace of withdrawal needs to be adjusted accordingly to country-specific situations, preventing the risk of destabilising recovery momentum.